Schools for Tomorrow Blog

Back in May, I asked blog readers to give their over/under guestimates for the 2008 CSAP results.  Save for Alex Ooms, no one took up that challenge.  I continue to be amazed that we talk/gripe a lot about CSAPs, but when they actually come out, we provide no context to what the results might really mean, only some post hoc “spin.” 

In that spirit, then, I’ll offer some of my own spin. 

It is particularly hard to assess test score results, at least statewide, when they look like this year’s – a mildly positive trend, or flat.  The half full perspective is “oh, we are continuing to improve, slower than we would want, but at least improving.”  The half empty take is “wow, all this reform effort and almost nothing to show for it, and at this rate, it will take until 2050 for all of Colorado’s students to be proficient.” 

More and more, I don’t think the year over year CSAP results tell us much of anything.  The growth model results in August will be more helpful, but a longer trend is more instructive, too, as in this chart from the Rocky, for 2004-8.

Here, out of 27 tests (math, reading, writing in grades 3-10 and science in few grades), aggregate state scores are up for 19, down for 6 and even for 2, over the 5 year period from 2004-8. Overall, that is positive, showing improvement. However, none of the grade level tests in any subject show more than a 6 percentage point increase in the percentage proficient over five years. 

Thus, with a median across grade levels of about 65% proficient in reading, 55% in math,  50% in math, the state would need anywhere from 30-45 more years of the very best improvements that have ever been made in any single CSAP test in any grade level to get everyone to proficiency.  Not gonna make that 2014 NCLB target of 100% proficiency.

Actually, the most striking thing about the Rocky chart is how much math proficiency levels decline with grade level.  While Colorado 3^rd graders are in the 70% proficient range, by 10^th grade only about 30% demonstrate proficiency.  While problems with 10^th grade math CSAPs often have been noted, and this decline does partially mirror national trends, it is really disturbing and incredibly problematic for STEM pipeline hopes.

Of course, while we would all like it to not be the case, in the aggregate, test scores and family SES are highly correlated.  Breaking that correlation, in a setting beyond a single exceptional school or two, is really hard and really rare.  And, aggregate results are difficult to move.  In fact, the CSAP results over the past five years are probably a bit better than they appear, since Colorado’s percentage of free/reduced lunch students, a reasonable measure of students in poverty, has grown from 31% to 35% over that period, suggesting that Colorado has been teaching and testing more at risk kids each year.

On the less aggregated level, it appears that DPS did much better this year, making really strong gains in middle school tests and smaller but solid gains in nearly all grade levels.  One can hope that the determined and focused reform efforts of Michael Bennet and company are beginning to pay off, or perhaps, could it be ProComp incentives . . .?

This entry was posted on Wednesday, July 30th, 2008 at 6:28 am and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.